Posted May 2018

Thank you for your time and interest in my portfolio.

My name is Scott Crass and I am a profound political junkie, historian and lifelong resident of New Jersey. In fact, my love of the Jersey shore is second only to my zeal for politics, specifically analyzing elections as well as the “characters” who make up Congress and the national political scene.

In that vein, my passion is political writing and I have years of experience authoring analysis of the Congressional and gubernatorial landscape and it is not an exaggeration to say that my encyclopedic knowledge of elections and political figures past and present has encompassed an enormous part of my reputation. I am well-versed in state-by-state political geography including national partisan leanings down to the county level, knowledge that is critical for analyzing and communicating the election landscape. To that end, redistricting is a great interest.

Over the years, I have taken enormous pride in sharing that commentary – all of it non-partisan, in a number of venues, including a twitter following well into the thousands, web-sites (The Moderate Voice) or personal publications, (“The Crass Report”).  The overwhelming majority of my commentary is non-partisan as I call the lay-of-the-land as I see it. As such, I now strive to make political and feature writing my full-time profession and anxiously await any forthcoming opportunities.

Political writing per se is not the only aspect of writing for which I have become renowned. I am a Presidential buff and impress folks with my ability to answer arcane trivia questions.  I am an accomplished author, having written Statesmen and Mischief Makers. The initial three-volume biographical series is a compendium of political officeholders from the period of Kennedy through Reagan whose names people may have heard but don’t recognize, particularly when it comes to accomplishments. Some have had as much impact on major policy decisions as Presidents themselves. Others shaped Presidents lives/careers. But the bulk of my subjects simply had great tidbits that could offer great dinner anecdotes. My goal at the beginning of each chapter was to build up the anticipation by sharing with my readers either a historic tidbit or funny line associated with a political figure. I have now composed a fourth volume which portrays governors from the late 1980s and early 90s. Another volume on the record number members of Congress who left office following the 1992 elections is also on the way.

Nearly every chapter resulted from intense research and collaboration with family members or staffers of my subjects – and in some cases the subjects themselves. Many graciously agreed to provide photographs. Speaking of photographs, the most laborious part of the project may have been the necessity of tracking down the copyright of every single image that I wished to use. This endeavor proved excruciating and costly but, at the end of the day, enabled me to create a product that made myself and many others proud. Most important was the preservation of history and stories of men and women of enormous importance.

My writing ability is guided by an expansive vocabulary and I take great enjoyment in learning new words. This gives me wide stylistic latitude to tell stories and is a trait I consider fundamental for keeping readers enchanted. As such, I have been able to apply these attributes to ghost writing, where I am also experienced.

Now, allow me to talk about my current professional endeavors. For the past 16 years, I have been employed as a legislative aide for the state of New Jersey. In addition to handling the day-to-day demands of a Senator’s schedule, I assist constituents of the 14^th legislative district who face problems with a government agency in our state. Getting positive results is enormously rewarding but, simply making the effort is fulfilling. This has also given me an opportunity to undertake another thing I love – public speaking. My approach to preparing my remarks is similar to my writing – captivating my audience with a famous quote or funny line that ties in to what I will be talking about.

On my down time (which of late has become a sparse commodity and then some), you can usually find me at my beloved Jersey Shore, listening to classy music from by-gone eras and of course, checking my phone for political developments. In other words, you don’t have to be an officeholder in order to be thinking about the next election.

As another year draws to a close, it’s time for that bi-annual tradition. Two criteria. One, while politics and policy are not always mutually exclusive, this column was devoted to political players and happenings that were generally meant for the campaign trail. Second, in an effort to avoid a single-domination of a category(s), presidential company was excluded. And that is my Christmas gift to Donald Trump.

My choices are listed alphabetically, and my attempt to pick a winner (or loser) among the crop is spelled explained at the end.

Winner of the Year 
Charlie Baker (R-Massachusetts)

TJ Cox (D-California)
Larry Hogan (R-Maryland)
Steny Hoyer (R-Maryland)
Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas)
Nancy Pelosi (D-California)
Adam Schiff (D-California)

Long before it became obvious that Baker was going to face but nominal opposition for a second term, his status as the most popular governor in the nation – and in a legendary lopsided Democratic state, was nothing short of amazing. Hogan performed a similar feat and did so as a conservative, law and order chief executive. Cox’s presence on this list is noticeable because he is the smallest fish surrounded by many big ones but, the fact is, switching from the donnybrook in California’s 10th District to a more uphill 21st probably gave Democrats both seats because it prevented the party from getting shut-out in the race to challenge Denham. Conversely, Schiff has already established a national presence but the Democratic takeover will give him official teeth as Intelligence chair. So Beto didn’t win – it wasn’t expected that he would and he came closer in a red state than most thought possible even at the end. But he not only started a movement that gives him a future in politics but he nearly single-handedly did the impossible: chipping away at Texas’s granite Republican dominance which moved a few counties to the Democratic fold. And consequently, that proved secondary importance to an undeniable success by friends and foes alike.The near octogenarian Hoyer could have either been collateral for Pelosi keeping her job or a victim of the demand for generational change. But Pelosi takes the category far-and-away. Considered dead-woman walking in her caucus as recently as the summer, something happened on the way to Pelosi’s removal: Democrats won back the House.  Before the dust even cleared, she was using her loyal network to bluff the rebels seeking her head, and with it, an opponent who never even surfaced. And making mince-meat out of the president in a protracted impromptu television appearance leas me to believe Republicans might be rethinking their strategy toward the way they caricature Pelosi come election time.

Departing Public Servant Who Will Be Most Missed
Joe Donnelly (D-Indiana)
Jeff Flake (R-Arizona)
Luis Gutierrez (D-Illinois)
Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)
Claire McCaskill (D-Missouri)
Bill Nelson (D-Florida)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Florida)

Even Hatch’s many friends on both sides of the aisle concede his likability but Flake’s frequent voice of calmness and reason was often overlooked when he opted to side with his party nearly every time. Agree or disagree with Gutierrez, his sincerity has been a hallmark characteristic during his quarter-of-a-century in the nation’s capitol. Donnelly’s approachability and even regular-guy persona was noteworthy and everyone loved the welcoming Ros-Lehtinen. The soft-spoken, non-ideological Nelson made him a last link to old-time Florida. But McCaskill’s refreshing candor, willingness to converse with the most hostile of audiences (deep-red Missouri), assiduous oversight that never lacked at hearings and solution oriented creed that allowed her to live up to the creed a hometown paper once bestowed on her. That she is a true “Truman in a Skirt.” In these Congresses, that’s a nearly non-existent quality that will be costly to nearly every area of sound government.

Y’all Don’t Come Back Now
Elizabeth Esty (D-Connecticut)
Reuben Kihuen (D-Nevada)
Kris Kobach (R-Kansas)
Jason Lewis (R-Minnesota)
Bruce Rauner (R-Illinois)
Scott Walker (R-Wisconsin)

Rauner never even tried fitting in with his state and the voters noticed. Lewis had a radio-trail of tempestuous statements that proved bigotry. Kobach was – Departing governments of both parties typically try to get their goodie-bags of spoils before leaving (appointments, etc.), but reinventing the wheel to advantage your party seems to go hand-in-hand with most of Walker’s tenure. Still in all, that can’t hold a candle to sexual harassment and cover-up of such which give Esty and Kihuen the cake, not to mention a self-deprived opportunity to serve in a new Democratic majority.

Brightest Future
Stacie Abrams (D-Georgia)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-New York)
Dan Patrick (R-Texas)
Mikie Sherrill (D-New Jersey)
Lauren Underwood (D-Illinois)
Gretchen Whitmer (D-Michigan)

In Abrams’s case, losing doesn’t necessarily inhibit a bright future if there are other fish to fry (a rematch in 2022 seems hers for the asking) but while she will be making up for lost time, Whitmer will be busy governing as a fresh face who will surely achieve national notoriety. While it may appear as though Patrick is the token Republican on the list, he did seem to be a rare new member of the House minority going places even before Saturday Night Live sealed his win. As the years progress, Patrick can anticipate an electoral avalanche of opportunities. Underwood won a district against great odds while Sherrill’s Navy pilot/prosecutor background garnered her much attention. But AOC. Ah, AOC. Her accomplishment in the June primary, while not perhaps “Man on the Moon,” certainly defied major odds but, at the end of the day (or the beginning of the year), she will still be one freshmen among 435 members. Still, so long as the media chronicles her every move and she finds herself green and growing, one can hardly blame her for running with the ball.

Just Plain Lucky
Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pennsylvania)
Laura Kelly (D-Kansas)
Martha McSally (R-Arizona)
Steve King (R-Iowa)
Robert Menendez (D-New Jersey)
Donna Shalala (D-Florida)

Even Democrats acknowledge Kelly’s win in heavily Republican Kansas was due to her odious and unappealing GOP rival, Kris Kobach. McSally would have been out of job following her loss to Krysten Sinema had Arizona’s other Senate seat not been vacant –and had she not made nice with the McCain family. Fitzpatrick almost certainly would have joined the casualties of his 21 other Republican colleagues who sat in districts Hillary Clinton carried, had his opponent not been a complete buffoon. Menendez can thank his lucky stars that he was seeking re-election in a state that was perhaps more antithetical to Trump than almost any other while King conversely may know deep down that for his voters, ideology trumped his own views. Cruz has to be lucky that Texas is just Texas enough that he was able to limp to a three point victory. But Shalala is far more of a policy wonk that campaigner and in an even slightly more hospitable GOP year, would almost certainly have lost.

Worst Candidate

Leslie Cockburn (D-Virginia)
Ron DeSanits (R-Florida)
Lena Epstein (R-Michigan)

Kristie Noem (R-South Dakota)
Kyrsten Sinema (D-Arizona)
Scott Wallace (D-Pennsylvania)
Scott Wallace (D-Pennsylvania)
And did I say Scott Wallace?

The fact that DeSantis eked out a win against an opponent at least portrayed as ethically tarnished is not lost on the fact that even Republicans seriously questioned both his campaign strategy and how he articulated his views. Ditto for Sinema whose centrist voting record compensated for her refusal to distance herself from some very strange statements while in her 20s. Noem’s weaknesses had more to do with failing to parch up already shaky fences after a very bitter primary. Epstein’s chances of keeping a House seat Republican were already on the fritz but essentially evaporated when she hired a “Jews for Jesus” rabbi to address a vigil following the Tree of Life massacre. But the fact that Virginia Democrats could not do any better than Cockburn is only exceeded by the bad joke mentality of Wallace’s campaign, not to mention some of his beliefs.

Worst Comeback Attempt
Mark Begich (D-Alaska)
Alan Grayson (D-Florida)
Crescent Hardy (R-Nevada)
Nick Lampson (D-Texas)

Greg Orman (I-Kansas)
Dino Rossi (R-Washington)

The poor Lampson, who before losing his seat in Congress, was as talented as they come, couldn’t even win an election as Jefferson County (Beaumont)Judge, an area that has long been his political base. Even with three statewide losses under his belt, one can hardly blame Rossi for thinking he could take a suburban Congressional district that hadn’t elected a Democrat since its creation in 1982 but, unfortunately for Rossi, that streak went kaput as his losing streak stayed alive. Hardy did the best he could in a year and district that leaned against him but Grayson’s challenge to Soto was emblematic of the pathetic, laughingstock that his final years in office had become. Begich’s entrance into the Alaska governor’s race just prior to the filing deadline was ill thought out and might have thrown the lid on a more plausible comeback opportunity down the road. But it was Orman declining to take a cue from other Independent candidates with zero chance (most notably Maine) for a time, put the Jayhawk State governor’s race in serious risk of landing in Kobach’s hands.

<strong>Political Loser Of The Year</strong>
John Garamendi (D-California)
Keith Ellison (D-Minnesota)
Kevin McCarthy (R-California)
Seth Moulton (D-Massachusetts)
Devin Nunes (R-California)
Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin)

Okay, Garamendi’s presence might be a little harsh but, the fact that the Californian did receive just 44 votes in a six-way contest for three posts on the House Democratic Whip team said that he couldn’t even count on unanimous support from his delegation. That is telling considering not only his longevity in state politics but since each of the other five were well to his junior in Congress. In securing the Minnesota AG post, Ellison was able to take advantage of a good year for his party but, unless he is able to put to rest allegations of personal behavior, he may be enjoying a last hurrah. Moulton and other anti-Pelosi insurgents didn’t know when to stop and heard about it back home. While that might not necessarily cost him his seat in a primary, it will vastly limit his chances at a statewide bid (his saving grace is that a viable opening might have been years away anyhow). Even as the number two, McCarthy never seemed to have a particularly dominant standing in the GOP caucus, and the loss of seven GOP colleagues is evidence of that. Nunes is one Californian still standing but his stock took a hit with what was viewed as a partisan performance as Intel Chair. But Ryan’s overzealousness for going to bat for the administration regardless of what he views as soundness of the defense (and one couldn’t put a gun to my head to convince me that he did serious questions) will reduce his place in history to below average status, as well it should.

Dumbest Contentions/Statements
“You’re just supposed to believe somebody because they said it happened.” – Kevin Cramer on Christine Blasey Ford’s accusations of sexual harassment against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Ted Cruz’s campaign releasing a jingle mocking O’Rourke’s lifelong nickname Beto, a Spanish derivative of his birthname, “Robert,” even though Cruz’s own name, “Ted,” was derived from Rafael Edward Cruz which as The Washington Post pointed out was “in another country, no less.”
“Our state director is Indian American, but he does an amazing job. Our director of all constituent services, she’s African American, but she does an even more incredible job than you could ever imagine.” -Indiana Senator Joe Donnelly during a debate with his rival, Greg Braun
“Whatever you touches turns to gold.” – Dean Heller to President Trump at a Nevada campaign rally days before the election
“If we work our butts off to make sure that we take back all three chambers of Congress, uh, rather, all three chambers of government: the presidency, the Senate, and the House.” – Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
“The only reason I’m a target is because Hillary Clinton won my district. I got 37,000 more votes than President Trump did. That means that the people in the 45th District identify with the policies that I support and support me because I’m in line with what they believe in.” – California Congresswoman Mimi Walters
“I’m going to stomp all over your face with golf spikes.” – Pennsylvania Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner on what he wanted to do to his rival, Governor Tom Wolf

Could an exhausted Donnelly have intended to say, “and,” rather than, “but?” Pretty obviously. But that was still baffling. Likewise, I’m semi inclined to believe Ocasio-Cortez misspoke in the vein that candidate Barack Obama did when boasting about having visited “57 states with three more to go,” but, I just can’t be sure on that one (incidentally, a skit on George W. Bush joked that the government consisted of “the Supreme Court, Dick Cheney and me”). Walters was essentially arguing that she was invincible as she sought re-election, just prior to her loss. Remember, Cramer defended the context of Sean Spicer’s assertion that “Hitler never used chemical weapons on his own people.” I don’t want to minimize the absurdness of Cramer’s comments or the apparent embracement of violence in Wagner’s remarks but, many in his own party attested to the fact that he is unhinged. But Heller, while needing every Trump voter in his fledgling bid for re-election, evidently forgot that he was running in a swing state that voted against the president. That came through on Election Day when Heller was unseated by a margin far larger than anyone expected.

Most Off-Their-Rockers
Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina)
Steve King (R-Iowa)
Maxine Waters (D-California)
Ryan Zinke (R-Montana)

Some of these “public servants” changed over time while others always had an impulsive streak about them but Graham’s newly-minted rebellious decorum was truly baffling, and disappointing for those who looked to him for comity, common-sense and solutions.

Worst Loser
Jeff Denham (R-California)
Yvette Herrell (R-New Mexico)
Gina Ortiz-Jones (D-Texas)
Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine)
Mimi Walters (R-California)
Even though her race was in a recount, Ortiz-Jones had little business attending new-member orientation in Washington when she was down 1,100 votes following the counting of all ballots. Walter’s contention that Democrats were “trying to steal my seat” and Denham blaming “ballot harvesting” for losing might have had credibility if the election came down to a couple dozen votes – but the deficit of both was roughly 10,000. Herrell’s campaigns still examining the late-processed Dora Ana’s ballots in New Mexico nearly two months after the vote count concluded. I know Maine’s ranked-choice system is unprecedented but it’s also unmistakable that people remember how one loses a lot longer than how they win.

It’s Not What It Used To Be
Florida
Ohio
Orange County, California
Rural America
Southern Suburbia
Williamson and Tarrant County, Texas

Rural America continues its stampede away from Democrats at all levels. An example: Oklahoma Democrats lost the last legislator from outside either suburban Tulsa or Oklahoma City (the Minority Leader was defeated, the other switched parties). To paraphrase John McCain on another matter: “They’re gone, and their not coming back.” Florida Democrats have to find a way to close a frustratingly low but persistent deficit which in this case was as low as .01%. Ohio could return in a wave but probably not until. But Republicans have arguably more serious problems. It took three generations for Orange County to turn Democratic and there’s nothing to suggest it’ll go back anytime soon. In Texas, Betomania caused seemingly impenetrably red Tarrant and Williamson Counties made the switch while Collin and Denton seem poised to follow, perhaps as early as 2020 (Fort Bend, Tom Delay’s stomping ground, switched in ’16). Oklahoma City tapped a Democrat for Congress for the first time in 40 years. The trend is also evident in the Southeast as GOP State legislative delegations in Gwinnett, Wake and Mecklenburg and even Cobb now have skeletal crews. Meanwhile, “suburban” Washington D.C. seems to be extending further into Virginia each year. Folks, that realignment is unmistakable.

Best Blogger/Political Analyst I Just Heard Of This Year
J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman
Jack Frost Curran @jackcurran49
Eli                             @elium2
Chris Luongo         @politicsluo

Politicobsessed      @politicobsessed
Drew Sawicki         @senhorraposa
Teenaged Political Nerd @political_nerd

These are all talented, up’n’coming fellas for whom the future in commentary is so bright, they have to wear shades. All combine map-drawing of recent contests, in some cases down to the precinct, with very prescient commentary. Eli is an expert on anything Georgia. Coleman, the most senior of the cast, might have a leg-up with his puns that might invite a tomato or two to be thrown his way (it takes a victim to know one, I guess). My favorite example. Coleman once wondered that if newly elected California Congresswoman Katie Porter someday became House Speaker, would she be presiding over the “Porter House” (I responded by calling that an “A.1. quip). This is creativity one doesn’t find anywhere else. And puns or not, the political arena is richer because they are a part of it. Looking forward to see what they all have in the year ahead.

With last month’s elections having all but officially concluded, the question remains. Was it a blue wave that engulfed the nation or simply a ripple? My answer. In the areas where it counted and outside of Florida (where Andy Gillum was a few Hamilton tickets away from becoming governor and Bill Nelson had an eye off the ball against a high-spending opponent who also happened to be governor) it was just shy of a wave. Okay, that’s somewhat evading the question. It’s not intentional but it does require the delineating of facts. But, were have to be pinned down, I would call it a blue something – a blue tide. That requires some extrapolation so let me explain.

The regions of the nation is elastic. The days of 1974 where Democrats 42 seat House gain came in big numbers from all over the country (Indiana alone produced five new seats for them are over). Ditto with a 52-seat GOP gain in 1994 being made possible in part by sweeping six seats in Washington State. The reason: urban areas and the suburbs are being solidified by Democrats and rural areas by the GOP. That was solidified this cycle and if that pattern were to hold cycle after cycle, that pattern would be bad for Republicans.

Republicans, from the president on down, have hailed the results as a “complete victory” and “better than other sitting Presidents” (in mid-terms). He even famously castigated Republicans who shied away from him and spurned his request to provide help (“Mia gave me no Love”). Alright, let’s look at that.

One statistic Republicans cite is that the 40 House seats Republicans surrendered this year were fewer than the loss of 52 seats during Bill Clinton’s first midterm, and a whopping 63 in Barack Obama’s. They cite gains in the Senate. True, but egregiously gerrymandered maps at both the Congressional and state legislative level this decade vastly limited how much Democrats could actually gain, and even with that, they broke through in areas designed to thwart them and as I’ll point out later in the piece, most of the GOP senate gains, which were in itself a limit to what they had initially hoped, were limited to rural America. By the way, Ronald Reagan suffered a 26-seat in the 1982 midterms so this year’s has exceeded that by a mile. But that said, let’s look at other, more jarring statistics which is far more powerful than anything an obscure and insignificant person like Scott Crass will have written.

First, with nearly all of the votes counted, Democrats got a record 9.7% lead for a midterm which translated to 8.5%, the largest in history. The 40 House seats Democrats gained were two shy of the gains that resulted after Watergate.

More starkly, before Election Day, 24 House Republicans sat in districts that Hillary Clinton carried against Trump in 2016. Come January, that number will be a paltry three (Brian Fitzpatrick owes his victory to a desultory opponent, Will Hurd to first-rate political skills and John Katko to luck I guess). At the start of her re-election campaign, one of those who lost, Mimi Walters of California, predicted that the ability of Hillary Clinton to prevail at the presidential level in district’s such as the one she has held in Orange County, California wouldn’t translate to the local level. She was wrong. Dozens of Republicans were bounced from their comfortable seats. Walters was one of them. In fact, all four Orange County districts that have Republican representation fell to the Democrats. To boot, the number of Californians serving in Congress was literally sliced in half – seven from 14.

In New Jersey, get this, the GOP’s five Congressional seats dwindled to just one, leaving them with the lowest representation in Congress since 1912, when the state’s Governor, Woodrow Wilson, was winning the White House.

In Chicagoland, the GOP initially felt perpetually safe in two suburban districts that were drawn by Democrats as GOP vote-sinks. But the unpopularity of the administration proved too much to bear and Democrats plucked off both seats. The same went for two in Oakland County, Michigan and two in Texas – a North Dallas and a Houston district. Even a Washington State district that has not been held by a Democrat since its creation in 1982 will be now. In Nevada, Democrats prevailed in a hotly contested Senate seat by 50,000 votes and went from holding zero statewide offices to five of six. Virginia continued its exurban swing as well by awarding Democrats three seats, one in genuinely swing territory and two that Trump carried. Democrats even picked up an Oklahoma City anchored Congressional seat which had given Trump a fourteen-point win in ’16.

Legislatures were little different. The Wake (Raleigh) and Mecklenburg (Charlotte) County Republican delegations in the North Carolina State House was reduced to zero while the Senate is hardly better. In total, two of 33 legislators from Wake are part of the GOP and one in Mecklenburg (all Senators). Democrats also netted a dozen State House seats in the Texas, Pennsylvania and Georgia Houses, while gaining in the Senate as well. These gains were almost totally all urban-oriented. They took the New York State Senate, the Minnesota House and padded their already impressive numbers in nearly every other blue-state chambers. Arizona Democrats are now one seat away from parity in both chambers, a big gain over the last two cycles. Even Democratic gains in the Ohio legislature, while severely restricted by the remap, were equally pronounced, coming in Franklin (Columbus) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) Counties. One Franklin woman even won a Senate seat while conceding she had a “troubled past” and receiving next-to-know help from the local organization (such is the distinction between urban and rural).

While Democrats failed to wrest the Georgia governorship, suburban unrest propelled Democrats to just shy of 49%. Meanwhile, rural districts continued to shed Democratic representation.

Now, I was thinking as late as Election Day that Democrats had potential to take closer to 50 seats with upsets coming from the most unexpected places with candidates not-existent on the radar screen (these are euphemistically called driftwood). That would have been an unambiguous wave. There are multiples in every wave cycle while this year, there was generally just one that was truly off the charts – the above mentioned Oklahoma-5. The same goes for gains in the legislatures where, with a recount or two still pending, Democrats have netted 296 seats nationwide. But again, extreme gerrymandering. The Congressional maps in Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan and Wisconsin were drawn to maximize the Republican advantage to such an extent that break-throughs more than what occurred were impossible.

Another example. Even while gaining two seats in the Lone-Star States, Democrats fell two to five percentage points shy in five races in metro-Dallas, Houston and Austin due to elongated lines. Travis County alone (Austin) is split between five Congressional districts. Ohio returned a delegation of 12 Republicans and four Democrats to Washington while affording Democrats nominal gains in the legislature. And Wisconsin. Oh, the Badger State. Democrats gained a single House seat that took a Wisconsin Mother of the Year to win by the narrowest of margins, leaving Republicans with 63 of the chamber’s 99 seats. Oh, by the way, the Wisconsin map has been the subject of an extreme-gerrymandering lawsuit that is currently before the U.S. Supreme Court.

That’s a summation of suburban America which dominated. Now let’s look at the deep red areas and rural America which did benefit Republicans and that’s where the Senate comes in.

Democrats did pick up a few House seats in the more lightly populated areas of the nation but also lost a few close ones, primarily in Minnesota and Kansas. And of course the Senate. Oklahoma Democrats continued hemorrhaging rural lawmakers in the legislature (while winning exurban seats).Democrats did fail to hold three red and getting redder by the day seats in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota and numerically, those were setbacks. But to the extent that those seats were ever part of the any long-term Democratic strategies, that is no longer the case. In most areas that are part of their base, they met or exceeded expectations. But that’s just my point.

To say that Republicans headed off a blue-wave because they took Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota is like Democrats claiming that a red-wave in 1994 didn’t materialize because Ted Kennedy managed to win re-election in Massachusetts or even because Chuck Robb held off Oliver North in Virginia. Or that Democrats would claim that they held off yet another red tide in 2010 because Harry Reid beat a deeply flawed Sharron Angle.

With regard to the Sunshine State, beyond the Hamilton imbroglio, Nelson’s 10,000 vote deficit was probably attributed entirely to the Broward County ballot snafu, resisting outreach to the Latino community and a. That said, Florida is obviously significantly more swingy than the other three states so, Democrats failure to grab these two immensely important contests does trim the sails from what happened in the rest of the country. Incidentally, the party did get a consolation prize as a Democrat Nikki Fried eked out a win for Agriculture Commissioner). Now let’s look at the rest of the country.

So what did happen? It wasn’t a ripple, it was just shy of a wave but it was unquestionably a blue-tide. The next Senate landscape involves blue and increasingly purple states. And with the realization that gerrymandering might have been the lone salvation for deeper losses being thwarted should not bring much happiness to the GOP as a presidential election looms.

From the moment it became clear that Donald Trump had captured the Presidency, one thing was certain; that the House of Representatives would be ground-zero for Democratic regrouping. With the Senate hosting contests featuring a number of Democrats in hard red states and the House Republican membership consisting of 24 districts that voted for Hillary Clinton, it wasn’t hard to figure which was more achievable. Like any cycle, however, there were ebbs and flows. While the party always remained favorites to win control, there were various signs at some points in the cycle that the gavel would hover on the edge, the most recent being the beginning of October when the Republican base seemed to be galvanized following the Brett Kavanaugh nomination. But if holding their losses seemed to be a possibility for Republicans, they has tumbled in recent weeks faster than Alice in Wonderland into the rabbit hole. The violence and political threats throughout the country and more aptly, the response to it, has proven just the latest canary-in-the coalmine and has both ginned-up and unsettled suburbia simultaneously at the least opportune time. More over, the resistance and young have been energized like never before.

Thus, Republicans are not just facing being hit by a wave but buried by an avalanche as their losses seem likely to approach or even exceed 40 (for historical purposes, the famous post-Nixon class of 1974 produced 75 new Democratic “Watergate Babies,” and resulted in 42 fewer Republicans). The following illustrates how far the party has fallen. I have made my traditional calls in most of the districts that are viewed as remotely competitive, though this time, in an absolute first for me, I have refrained doing so for roughly half-a-dozen seats. It will not change the fact that Democrats are going to have a pretty hefty majority but, because every one of these seats are GOP held and, with one or two exceptions, were all expected to be easy holds for the party until recently, even just picking off one or two will be icing on the cake for Democrats.

First for the dynamics. This column does not allow me to go into the intricacies of every contested race so, let me get the obvious out of the way.
Strategists have agreed that the open New Jersey-2 (LoBiondo)and Pennsylvania-5 (Meehan) being vacated were automatic Democratic pickups even as the cycle was getting underway with Pennsylvania-6 (Costello) close behind.

Since then, most in the GOP have conceded at least a couple of other seats: Arizona-2 (Open, McSally), California-49 (Open, Issa), Colorado-6 (Coffman), Kansas-3 (Yoder), Michigan-11 (Open, Trott), Minnesota-2 (Lewis), Minnesota-3 (Paulsen), New Jersey-11 (Open, Frelinghuysen), and Pennsylvania-7 (Open, Dent). Also, despite claims that Iowa-1, where Rod Blum had been given up for dead but Republicans insist reports of his death were premature, the betting is his last days are near as well. The same is true of Virginia-10 where, to quote the Dionne Warwick song, “Neither one of us wants to be the first to say goodbye.” Lastly, Republicans have triaged Kevin Rothfuss in his matchup with Democratic incumbent Conor Lamb in the new Pennsylvania-17 but that is balanced out by the fact that the seat Lamb is vacating, Pennsylvania-14, to flip to Republicans. Besides that seat, the only Democratic held district that the party is prepared to lose is Minnesota-8, the Iron Range district that the last Watergate Baby, Rick Nolan, is leaving behind.

That means the Democrats are already pretty much automatically at fourteen seats, nine short of what they need for a majority.

In addition, many in both parties now believe Donna Shalala has stopped the hemorrhaging from an unenthused base and a lax campaign style to flip the seat Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is vacating. (+15)

There are other ominous winds for Republicans. Democrats, deep in the minority, have shored up their own few vulnerable seats – a duo in Nevada and one in New Hampshire, and now only have one remaining worry: a second seat in Minnesota that covers the Rochester-Mankato area. But signs suggest that Democrat Tim Feehan is increasingly positioned to hold off State Senator Jim Hagedorn, who is mounting his third bid for the seat. He will also be helped by the fact that the current incumbent, Tim Walz, is a sure-bet to become the Gopher State’s next governor. Republicans on the other hand are seeing the battlefield extend into the very territory deep in the heart of their base that should keep them from being distracted, including open seats such as Florida-15, New Mexico-2 and Virginia-5.

A few highlights from some of the plethora of other races that will determine whether Democrats huff and puff or catapult into the majority.

Orange County, California has been the most intriguing for Democrats this cycle, not only because the county is hosting four tight Congressional races but because it has traditionally been a tough nut to crack (Hillary Clinton was the first presidential candidate since FDR to carry it). One of those seats up for grabs is the Issa seat which has already been established to be falling into the Democratic column. Others are hard to predict. For much of the year, it was assumed that Dana Rohrabacher, a thirty-year incumbent who boasts of a relationship with Vladimir Putin, and whose vocal social conservatism, while not new in the least, is beginning to rub folks the wrong way. By contrast, California-45 was initially viewed as the easiest Republican hold of the quartet to hold with incumbent Mimi Walters being scandal-free and, until recently, popular in the area. But the trend has worked against her to the point that she definitely trails challenger Katie Porter, though it’s not known how much at this point (Republicans at one point were threatening to cut her off if she didn’t recover). California-39, which Ed Royce is vacating, may be most unpredictable. Clinton also carried that district and mega-lottery winner Gil Cisneros emerged from a cacophonous Democratic field to face Yi-Ying Kim.

Over in LA County, two-term Republican Steve Knight has proven surprisingly resilient against one of the Democrats prized recruits, Katie Hill, a development that seems like a repeat episode of last cycle when many thought Knight would lose. But his district might prove the epicenter of getting their base out and Hill will win.

In Virginia-7, Dave Brat could easily pass for Ted Cruz’s mini-me. A member of the Freedom Caucus, he is not particularly beloved among his House colleagues and his personality couldn’t set a continent on fire, much less the word. His constituent relations have been ho-hum as well. In a neutral year, that might matter little in a Republican district but, in a year like this against a dynamic candidate, Abigail Spainberger, it’s a death knell (remember, this part of Virginia roared toward Democratic legislative candidates last year). Brat will lose.

Michigan-8 is an example of the roller coasters of a hard cycle. Bishop’ s district was made more Republican enough in the last round of redistricting that it should have insulated him from a serious challenge but prosecutor Elissa Slotkin has been giving him such a run for his money – literally. Slotkin has outraised Bishop to the point that he was initially triaged by fellow Republicans. The party has recently come back to his aid but his campaign was jarred by publicity surrounding a pro-Bishop Super Pac ad using an obvious Slotkin’s misspeak on the trail.” Slotkin had stated the necessity of always putting “party before country” before immediately realizing her mistake and correcting it. But the pro-Bishop ad conveniently left that part out. The ad aside, the Michigan Republican Party has utterly collapsed to the point that it has eradicated Slotkin’s geographic disadvantages (particularly in Northern Oakland and Livingston Counties). And early voting is going through the roof and that will help propel Slotkin to a win.

In Southern New Jersey, Andy Kim did not initially strike many as super-intimidating when he announced his intention to take on second term Republican Tom MacArthur. That’s sure not the case anymore. Aside from being a fundraising juggernaut, Kim has made inroads in blood-red Ocean County while holding his own in more mixed-Burlington. MacArthur has taken heat not only for being the only member of the Jersey delegation to back the Obamacare repeal (even sponsoring key provisions), but also to support the Trump tax plan which many in the east coast – due to it’s state and local deductions.

In Utah, Mia Love, as a rare African-American GOP female, was once seen as a potential star for the GOP but, she now faces a formidable challenger in Salt Lake City Mayor Ben McAdams. It took a long time for this one to gain traction but McAdams has now pulled ahead and, that is where he’ll remain when all the votes are counted.

Even seats drawn by Republicans at the beginning of the decade to be safe will find the environment to hostile to bear. In Texas, John Culberson of Houston and Pete Sessions of Dallas, were facing the races of their lives all year. Hillary Clinton carried both districts by a hair and Republicans have healthy down-ballot strength, which might have been enough for both men to keep their seats. But the enthusiasm for Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke has meant zeal among Democrats that has put turnout in overdrive. Two Atlanta area incumbents conversely were not on the knife’s edge all year and both stayed Republican at the Presidential level, though by sharply reduced margins than in the past. But the cannonball barreling toward them is the Stacey Abrams gubernatorial boomlet which will play here regardless of how she does statewide. As a result, those races are late toss-ups and pick’ems for this column.

Maine-2 poses a test for Democrats as they try to unseat an incumbent in a rural district that went for Barack Obama, but also Donald Trump. Bruce Poliquin has held the seat for two terms but Democrats think they’ve found the right formula for beating him: an Iraq/Afghanistan veteran who currently serves in the Maine legislature. Pre-existing conditions has been a big concern here and Poliquin has taken fire for backing the Obamacare repeal.

Similarly, in a heavily Cuban-American district in Southern Florida, Republican Carlos Curbelo has been in a dogfight with Debbie Muscarel-Powell all year and it was anyone’s guess which way the race might go. But I suspect the president’s ruminations about eliminating birthright citizenship will open the dam here, and that will be enough to drown Curbelo.

Pennsylvania-1 has had enormous national visibility not just because it typifies the suburban, Clinton carried GOP held district but because the Democratic candidate, philanthropist Scott Wallace, is the grandson of former Vice-President Henry Wallace. His opponent is freshman Brian Fitzpatrick, who won the seat in 2016 from his brother Mike who retired .Fitzpatrick is one of the chamber’s most centrist Republicans while Wallace has been thrust into serious defense over long-ago statements that were highly viewed as anti-Israel (Bucks County has a sizable Jewish population). The race has been tight and days ago, I would have called it in favor of the incumbent. But the backlash over Trump’s rhetoric has ricocheted suburbia with fury and that will probably Wallace over the top. One interesting nugget. Mike Fitzpatrick was also unseated after one term but came back four years later. Will Brian follow?

In Washington State, Dino Rossi picks the worst cycles to run for office. He came within 129 votes of becoming the state’s governor following a protracted recount in 2004, then opted for a rematch four years later. But 2008 was Obama’s year and Rossi lost by an even bigger margin. His 2010 challenge to Senator Patty Murray in a Republican year at least did not go against the grain pendulum wise but Rossi still lost. This cycle, his bid for the open Washington-8 was an almost guaranteed win until the bottom fell out for the party. Thus, Rossi appears consigned to lose to a new and politically rusty opponent. The news is not all bad for Rossi, however. Another loss means Rossi will not be going to the other Washington, a place he once called a “human cesspool.” Incidentally, the same fate is likely to hit someone who already is in the other Washington, Jamie Hererra-Beutler of the state’s GOP leaning Third district. Her former boss, however, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, will narrowly pull it out/

The uproar has impacted even senior members. The dean of the House, Don Young, is suddenly in for the race of his life (as he is every five cycles or so). He will scrape by but others, such as Fred Upton, a 32-year incumbent and former chair of the Commerce Committee won’t be so lucky and he’ll emulate Iowa’s Jim Leach who was literally stunned on Election Day (though it has become increasingly clear this past month that Upton wouldn’t skate as he has in the past). Even Chris Smith of New Jersey and Peter King of New York, are running radio ads, a first in a long, long time. Smith, the last of two surviving “Reagan Robots” elected in 1980, is on par to take his lowest margin since his 53% in his first re-election in 1982. King, elected in 1992 from very fertile Republican turf, has seen his district become more Democratic. Only the fact that he is Peter King – a Congressman who is widely respected by his colleagues and in Congress, will allow him to scrape. But in an illustration of the roof caving in, his two-term colleague, Lee Zeldin, will not be so lucky. Expect the Suffolk County Republican to fall by a nose to a surprise primary winner whom many considered second-tier.

That more than anything summarizes the nature of the year.

My Predictions of the Outcome of The Competitive House races For 2018
*Denotes incumbent
Due to the presence of third party contenders, percentages will not add up to 100%

Alaska-At Large (Don Young* (R) 52% Alyse Galvin (D) 48%); Arizona-6 David Schweikert* (R) 51% Anita Malik (D) 49%); Arizona-8 Debbie Lesko* (R) 53% Hiral Tipernini (D) 47%; California-1 Doug LaMalfa* (R) 51% Audrey Denney (D) 49%); California-4 Tom McClintock* (R) 52% Jessica Morse (D) 48%; California-10 Josh Harder (D) 51% Jeff Denham* (R) 49%; California-21 David Valadao* (R) 54% T.J. Cox (D) 46%; California-22 Devin Nunez* (R) 54% Andrew Janz (D)46%; California-25 Katie Hill (D) 51% Steve Knight* (R) 49%; California-39 Gil Cisneros (D) 52% Young Kim (R) 48%; California-45 Katie Porter (D) 52% Mimi Walters* (R) 48%; California-48 Pick’em; California-49 Mike Levin (D) 55% Diane Harkey 45%; Colorado-3 Scott Tipton* (R) 50% Diane Mitsch Bush (D) 47%; Colorado-6 Jason Crow (D) 55% Mike Coffman* (R) 42%; Florida-6 Mike Waltz (R) 52% Nancy Soderberg (D) 48%; Florida-15 Ross Spano (R) 52% Kristen Carlson (D) 48%; Florida-18 Pick’em; Florida-25 Pick’em; Florida-26 Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D) 52% Carlos Curbelo* (R) 48%; Florida-27  Donna Shalala (D) 53% Maria Elvira Salazar (R) 45%; Georgia-6  Karen Handel* (R) 50.4% Lucy McBath (D) 49.6%; Georgia-7 Pick ’em; Illinois-6 Sean Casten (D) 51% Peter Roskam*(R) 48%; Illinois-12 Mike Bost* (R) 51% Brendan Kelly (D) 46%; Illinois-13 Betsy Londrigan Davis (D) 49% Rodney Davis* (R) 49%; Illinois-14 Lauren Underwood (D) 51% Randy Hultgren* (R) 49%; Iowa-1 Abby Finkenauer 53% Rod Blum* (R) 44%; Iowa-3 Cindy Axne (D) 48% David Young* 48%; Iowa-4 Pick ’em; Kansas-2 Paul Davis (D) 52% Stan Watkins (R) 45%; Kansas-3 Sharice Davids (D) 54% Kevin Yoder* (R) 44%; Kentucky-6  Andy Barr* (R) 50% Amy McGrath (D) 48%; Maine-2  Jared Golden (D) 48% Bruce Poliquin* (R) 45%; Michigan-1  Jack Bergman* (R) 51% Matt Morgan (D) 49%; (D) Michigan-2 Bill Huizenga* (R) 50% Rob Davidson (D) 48% Michigan-3 Cathy Albro (D) 50% Justin Amash* (R) 47%; Michigan-6  Matt Longjohn (D) 49% Fred Upton* (R) 47%; Michigan-7  Tim Walberg* (R) 53% Gretchen Driscoll (D) 47%; Michigan-8 Elissa Slotkin (D) 50% Mike Bishop*(R) 46%; Michigan-11 Haley Stevens (D) 53% Lena Epstein (R) 43%; Minnesota-1  Dan Feehan (D) 53% Jim Hagedorn (R) 47%; Minnesota-2  Angie Craig (D) 54% Jason Lewis* (R) 46%; Minnesota-3 Dean Phillips (D) 54% Eric Paulsen* (R) 46%; Minnesota-7 Collin Peterson* (D) 55% Doug Hughes 45%; Minnesota-8  Pete Stauber (R) 49% Joe Radinovich (D) 44%; Montana-At Large  Kathleen Williams (D) 48% Greg Gianforte* (R) 46%; Nebraska-2  Don Bacon* (R) 52% Kara Eastman (D) 48%; Nevada-3 Susie Lee (D) 50% Danny Tarkanian (R) 44% Nevada-4 Steve Horsford (D) 53% Crescent Hardy (R) 42%; New Hampshire-1  Chris Pappas (D) 55% Eddie Edwards (R) 42%; New Jersey-3  Andy Kim (D) Tom MacArthur* (R); New Jersey-7  Tom Malinowski 51% Leonard Lance* 46%; New Jersey-11  Mikie Sherrill (D) Jay Webber (R) 56% Jay Webber (R) 42%; New Mexico-2 Xochitil Torres-Small (D) 51% Yvette Herrell (R) 49%; New York-1 Perry Gershon (D) 49% Lee Zeldin* (R) 48%; New York-2 Peter King* (R)53% Liuba Gretchen Shirley (D) 47%; New York-19  Antonio Delgado (D) 51% John Faso* (R) 46%; New York-22 Anthony Brindisi (D) 52% Claudia Tenney* (R) 48%; New York-23  Tom Reed* (R) Tracy Mitrano (D) 48%; New York-24  John Katko* (R) 50.1% Dana Balter (D) 49.9%; New York-27  Chris Collins* (R) 49% Nate McMurray (D) 48%; North Carolina-2 George Holding* (R) 51% Linda Coleman (D) 47%; North Carolina-9 Dan McCready (D) 49% Mark Harris (R) 47%; North Carolina-13 Ted Budd* (R) 50% Kathy Manning (D) 47%; Ohio-1  Steve Chabot* (R) 51% Aftab Pureval (D) 46%; Ohio-12  Pick’em; Ohio-14 Pick ’em; Oklahoma-5 Steve Russell* (R) 53% Kendra Horn (D) 47%; Pennsylvania-1 Scott Wallace (D) 50% Brian Fitzpatrick* R) 47%; Pennsylvania-8  Matt Cartwright (D) 56% John Chrin (R) 44%; Pennsylvania-10 Scott Perry* 50% George Scott (D) 50%; Pennsylvania-11  Lloyd Smucker* (R) 55% Jess King (D) 45%; Pennsylvania-16  Pick’em; Pennsylvania-17  Conor Lamb* (D) 57% Keith Rothfuss* (R) 43%; South Carolina-1 Katie Arrington (R) 51% Joe Cunningham (D) 49%; Texas-2 Dan Crenshaw (R) 51% Todd Litton (D) 46%; Texas-6  Ron Wright (R) 53% Jana Lynn Sanchez (D) 45% <strong>Texas-7  Fletcher (D) 50.4 John Culberson* (R) 49.6%); Texas-21  Chip Roy* (D) 50% Joseph Kopser (D) 48%; Texas-22  Pete Olson* (R) 51% Sri Preston Kulkarni (D) 47%; Texas-23  Will Hurd* (R) 52% Gina Ortiz Jones (D) 46%; Texas-24  Kenny Marchant* (R) 52% Jan McDowell (D)  44%;  Texas-31  John Carter* (R)52% M.J. Hegar (D) 46%; Texas-32  Colin Allred (D) 50% Pete Sessions* (R) 48%; Utah-4 Ben McAdams (D) 53% Mia Love* (R) 44%; Virginia-2  Elaine Luria 50.4 (R) Scott Taylor* (D) 49.6%; Virginia-5  Pick’em; Virginia-7  Abigail Spanberger (D) 50% Dave Brat* (R) 47%; Virginia-10</strong> Jennifer Wexton (D) 56% Barbara Comstock* (R) 44%; Washington-3  Carolyn Long (D) 50.4% Jamie Hererra-Beutler* (R) 49.7%; Washington-5  Cathy McMorris-Rodgers* (R) 51% Lisa Brown (D) 49%; Washington-8  Kim Schrier (D) 54% Dino Rossi (R); Wisconsin-6  Glen Grothman* (R) 52% Dan Kohl (D) 48%; Wisconsin-7  Sean Duffy (R) 50% Margaret Engebretsen (D) 46%;

At long last, we’re down to one week before Election Day. This is a time when strategists and junkies pace as candidates engage in last minute tactics (some of them ethical) to get out the vote. And much is on their plate.

While Democrats seem assured of making momentous gains in the U.S. House of Representatives, big-state governorships and state legislative chambers, control is now certain to elude them in the one area they want it most: the U.S. Senate. The upper chamber has control over nominations which means Democrats would, numerically at least, be on par when it comes to battling the Trump administration, particularly on the all-important Supreme Court. But for that to happen, the party would have to run the table and gain two seats in order to reverse the current 51-49 Republican majority. The lay-of-the-land, that being the map of states holding Senate contests, is daunting because a majority of the battles are being fought on heavily red turf in states held by Democratic incumbents. Therefore, a few scenarios await. While there is a small chance for Democrats to get to a 50-50 tie (which should leave them ecstatic), more realistic outcomes is that they’ll be relegated to breaking even (which would be a relief), losing one seat (not a catastrophe given that the ’20 cycle is on more favorable terrain) or potentially losing more, which would be very uninviting and more and more catastrophic the further they get from their current 49.

My call is that the Republicans will retain control with 51 seats and perhaps 52, while Democrats will be left with 48 seats and perhaps 49. Why the discrepancy. Because I am copping out on calling Arizona. This has been such a rancorous and bitter campaign with so many variables that the outcome appears to be a real nail-biter. Thus, venturing a guess might be worthy, but making an educated prediction purely fool’s gold and I’ll illustrate that below. For that reason, it’s a good old fashioned pick’em.

<img src=”http://themoderatevoice.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Sinema_18_sq-1-300×300.jpg” alt=”” width=”300″ height=”300″ class=”alignnone size-medium wp-image-238273″ />
<strong>The rapidly changing dynamics of the Arizona’s Senate race leads me to categorize that race as a “pick’em.”
Photo via kyrstensinema.com</strong>

That said, let’s look at the race-by-race dynamics of each seat that is ferociously up for grabs, starting with the endangered seats currently held by Democrats.

<strong><em>North Dakota</em></strong>
Even before the 2016 election, there was no doubt that Heidi Heitkamp would have among the most challenging races of any Democrat facing the voters this cycle. She only won her first term by 3,000 votes and Trump carried North Dakota by 36 points. Sure enough, Heitkamp fell behind her Republican rival, Congressman Kevin Cramer, early this summer and has only dropped more precipitously since September (some polls have her trailing by 15 points). Heitkamp had hoped her very likable style which even Cramer concedes is a hallmark, would be enough for voters to overlook her party but that prospect has all but evaporated. Heitkamp was aided by more than 12 million dollars that flowed her way following her vote against Judge Kavanaugh but money was never an issue. She wasn’t helped when her campaign inadvertently revealed the names of over a hundred victims of sexual assault, including dozens who had not consented.

Because the state is only represented by a single Congressman, the constituency is very familiar with both candidates. Despite the grim odds, Heitkamp is putting up a major fight and ex-Vice-President Joe Biden is scheduled to do a number of stops for her. The state’s Native-American community has been galvanized by a recent Supreme Court ruling upholding a state law mandating voter identification. Democrats insist the race is within low single digits but the state’s partisan lean seems too much for Heitkamp to overcome.

<strong>Crass’s Call: </strong><strong>Kevin Cramer (R) 54% Heidi Heitkamp* (D) 46%</strong>

<strong>Missouri</strong><em>
Claire McCaskill is also on the edge of precipice and in this case, it may be a test of urban versus rural that decides her fate. Republicans wooed young Attorney General Josh Hawley into the race (he just won the post in 2016) and McCaskill has hit him hard over the issue of pre-existing conditions. McCaskill knows she can’t win without winning over at least some voters outside of Democratic friendly constituencies, and exhibit a of that came most recently when she referred to colleagues Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as “crazy liberals.” That does not appear to be political speak as McCaskill has long had base consolidation issues, particularly with the African-American community who argue that she hasn’t used her bully pulpit effectively enough to champion their interests. But McCaskill also was among the only vulnerable Senate Democrats to come out against Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court even before the sexual harassment allegations (she cited his ideology).

McCaskill has long been well-respected in the Senate for her oversight and tell it like it is style (she was once referred to as “Truman in a skirt”), but the fact is, the state has sharply turned against her brand. There is no question McCaskill is down though polls make it difficult to ascertain how much. Folks say a five point deficit might be too much to make up on Election Day though the St Louis and Kansas City area will come in big for her. The question is whether it is enough counters rural Missouri. If I had to call it, I’d say she is nosed out in the biggest heartbreaker of the evening for Democrats.

<strong>Crass’s Call: Josh Hawley (R) 48% Claire McCaskill* (D) 47%</strong>

<strong>Indiana</strong></em>
Joe Donnelly is the one deep red state incumbent for whom the forecast is entirely uncertain. The Indiana Democrat has tried – many say successfully, to combine an engaging personality with a centrist image. Furthermore, while the Republican with the least baggage, State Senator Greg Braun, emerged from a three-way primary, that said little as most were not thrilled with the lot they had to choose from.

Donnelly seemed to be proving that case through September as he maintained an edge over Braun. But Kavanaugh and a vicious ad barrage may have changed that and even Democrats concede Donnelly has fallen behind, though are quick to point out that he is still within the margin of error. Donnelly has been trying to appeal to Republicans by noting that he voted for Gorsuch and does not favor the abolishment of ICE. At a recent debate, he even raised eyebrows among his own party by refusing to rule out voting for a moratorium on birthright the president has been promoting. Braun meanwhile, who often sheds the sports jacket when he campaigns, emphasizes his outsider image. Democrats insist undecideds will break Donnelly’s way and are encouraged by high turnout in areas such as Marion County (Indianapolis) in the early vote. If polls are to be believed, he’ll need every one of them as this is a true tossup, and may well finish the closest of the close Senate races.
<strong>
Crass’s Call: Joe Donnelly* (D) 49% Greg Braun (R) 47%</strong>

<img src=”http://themoderatevoice.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/TdS-N-Yx_400x400-300×300.jpg” alt=”” width=”300″ height=”300″ class=”alignnone size-medium wp-image-238160″ />
<strong>Joe Donnelly’s race could literally go either way</strong>
<strong>Photo via Joe Donnelly’s Twitter Feed</strong>

<strong>Montana</strong><em>
Jon Tester is one incumbent that Democrats that both parties feel is now headed to reelection kind of a relief for Democrats who fear that he too would be on the bubble. The ultimate nominee for Republicans, state auditor Matt Rosendale was not the first choice but Republicans, led by President Trump, have made multiple efforts to prop him up (Tester had earned Trump’s wrath by opposing the nomination of his personal physician, Ronnie Jackson as Veterans Affairs Secretary citing qualifications). Tester’s strength is farmer image and his closing argument has reminded voters of an accident at the age of nine when a meat grinding accident cost him three fingers. Rosendale, on the other hand, has generated heat for being an outsider, he hails from Maryland, and that’s not particularly an asset in Big Sky County.

Democrats typically see a downturn as the election draws near (Tester led incumbent Conrad Burns by a comfortable margin weeks before Election Day yet ultimately prevailed by one point). Thus, no Democratic Montana can breathe until all the ballots are counted but, Tester recently told a Politico reporter, “damn right I think I’m going to win.” With a majority of Montanans casting their ballots early, it seems likely that at least some attention is shifting to the states At-Large Congressional race.

<strong>Crass’s Call: Jon Tester* (D) 50% Matt Rosendale (R) 45%</strong>

<strong>West Virginia</strong></em>
One incumbent who is not sweating all that much is the man who sits in the biggest Trump state of all among Senate races up this cycle – Joe Manchin. The President took 68% in West Virginia there but Manchin, as a former two-term governor, has long since built a record of trust with voters. He has kept major distance from the Democratic Party (he was the only Democrat to support Judge Kavanaugh’s nomination) and was even a candidacy for purging by the Trump administration as the president dangled the prospect of a cabinet appointment over him.

Manchin’s opponent is Attorney General Patrick Morrisey but despite trying, has not been able to land a hammer on any feet of clay he feels the incumbent may have. The incumbent looks well positioned here and Democrats better enjoy it. Given the state’s rapid demographic shift, Manchin, 71, may be the last Democrat to win a Senate seat here for decades.

<strong>Crass’s Call: Joe Manchin* (D) 54% Patrick Morrissey (R) 43%</strong>

<strong>Florida</strong><em>
There is a sixth seat that has ginned up unexpected trouble and that is Florida. Until this past Spring, outgoing GOP Governor Rick Scott dangled political watchers over whether he’d jump into the race and he could afford to – he had two things, money and near-universal name recognition. Nelson on the other hand has been an institution in Sunshine State politics but has always had a laid-back campaign style that made Democrats nervous. They had reason to be as Scott initially established nominal leads. It soon became clear that Nelson would need all of his assets: his long-term popularity and the national trend to counter Scott and, after a very rusty start, he appears to be getting it (the governor’s race that African-American Andrew Gillum stands a good chance at winning is expected to draw further votes to Nelson). Republicans say this one is far from locked up and Scott keeps dipping into his personal fortune to fund the campaign but, Nelson has overperformed in the past (an unexpectedly 55% in 2012) and many are breathing easier about this one.
<strong>
Crass’s Call: Bill Nelson* (D) 52.5% Rick Scott (R) 47.5%</strong>

There are a few Republican held seats that are important parts of the equation.

<strong>Nevada</strong></em>
At the earliest point in the cycle, the one state Democrats expected to flip early on was Dean Heller, who holds the only Republican seat up this year that Hillary Clinton carried. A Trump midterm, the party reckoned, would mean a slam-dunk for Heller’s opponent, Congresswoman Jacky Rosen. But Heller has proven to be one dogmatic incumbent and in a Vegas-style move that was full high-rollers, has embraced Trump (“whatever you touch turns to gold”), a statement even more eyebrow raising because Heller had withdrawn his support of Trump after the release of the “Access Hollywood” tape. Heller meanwhile was not helped by Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s contention that the administration supports building the durable Yucca Mountain nuclear waste sites which most Nevada politicians of both stripes oppose (Harry Reid famously called it the “screw Nevada law”),but the few who don’t do so at their peril. That led iconic Nevada columnist Jon Ralston to quip, “Poor Rick Perry didn’t get the memo and accidentally told the truth.”

Early voting has been well-underway in Nevada. Heller has been dominating the rurals but they are small and Democrats have been holding their own in normally Republican Washoe County where Heller needs to win. Clark County (Vegas) is the Democrats firewall and so far, Democrats appear to be getting their numbers. Hence, I’d rather rather be Rosen at this point than Heller.

Crass’s Call: Jacky Rosen D 48% Dean Heller* (R) 46%
<img src=”http://themoderatevoice.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/heller_default-300×195.jpg” alt=”” width=”300″ height=”195″ class=”alignnone size-medium wp-image-238161″ />
<strong>Nevada’s senior Senator is one GOP incumbent who has been through Heller and high water this cycle
Photo via the United States Senate</strong>

<strong>Arizona</strong><em>
At that time, Arizona was the other GOP held seat Democrats thought they could wrest away but that is shaping up as expected at the time, into a dogfight which one week out, offers anything but clarity. Democrats anointed three-term Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema while Republicans, after fending off two rivals very far to the right, tapped her two-term colleague, Martha McSally. Sinema has done a complete political metamorphosis since her days as a Ralph Nader supporter, compiling a pro-business voting record that is actually to the right of most House Democrats (Sinema has raised eyebrows by refusing to state whether she’d vote for her party’s nominee for governor). This isn’t stopping Republicans have been relentless at reminding voters of her past, including her wearing a pink tutu during the Iraq War, appearing to encourage folks to join the Taliban (which cost her the endorsement of the State Trooper’s Association), of calling her state “crazy” and the, “meth lab of democracy.”

But Sinema has baggage against McSally, including audio of her saying, “Let’s get this fu—ing thin done” just before the House vote to repeal Obamacare (now McSally acknowledges she “is getting my ass kicked,” over that vote, which means she’d likely win a cussing competition hands down.

The ads have diminished Sinema’s front-running status but not to the point of no return. She has regained her footing in polls though, the candidacy of a Green candidate complicates the math. This is one race that might take days to sort out – Arizona has a large number of ballots that are not counted right away and the majority of those are from Maricopa (Phoenix) and Pima (Tucson) counties. McSally knows this full well as she initially trailed Ron Barber before securing a 133 vote victory in 2014. And Democrats, behind in early voting, have much ground to make up. Typically, that happens later.

<strong>Crass’s Call: Pick’em</strong>

<strong>Tennessee</strong></em>
For a while, Tennessee seemed to be confounding the pundits. When Democrats wooed ex-Governor Phil Bredesen into the race following Senator Bob Corker’s retirement, he immediately vaulted into a lead. But most pundits thought it would be simply a matter of time before the Volunteer State’s Republican proclivities overtook him and though it did take a surprisingly long time (Bredesen hung on in polls through mid-September), Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn has passed him, though it’s not clear how much.

Bredesen appears to have been given at least one lifeline. Singer Taylor Swift’s endorsement produced 65,000 new voter registrations just before the deadline, a margin that could easily make the difference in a statewide race (getting all those voters to show is a horse of a different color). Plus, some cite a hidden effect from folks who won’t admit publicly that they are voting for him but ultimately will. Bredesen also tried to woo right leaning voters by announcing that he would have voted to confirm Kavanaugh had he been in office, which earned the fury of left leaning voters.

Bredesen aides believe the race will be decided by two points either way and the president will be holding an election eve rally in the Volunteer State which wouldn’t be happening if the GOP felt the race was locked up. Still, early voting is already off to a rapid pace and one would think most minds will have been made up by that point.

The bottom line: Bredesen has not been totally written off but the math given the state’s political lean seems to suggest that Blackburn will hold the seat.

<strong>Crass’s Call: Marsha Blackburn (R) 51% Phil Bredesen (D) 47% </strong>

<strong>Texas</strong><em>
I know of no one who actually will go on the record and predict that Beto O’Rourke will actually unseat Ted Cruz but in this case, horseshoes and hand grenades apply- close does count.Congressman Beto O’Rourke has electrified the state like no other candidate. It has meant visits to the state’s 254 counties – no easy feat, and crowds. He has raised $38 million.

</em><em>The Texas Tribune</em> reported recently that, “The state’s five largest counties have all nearly doubled the turnout compared to the same point in 2014.Some counties — like El Paso, Williamson and Cameron — have already surpassed the overall voter turnout during the entire two-week early voting period in 2014.” Even O’Rourke would have to concede that this is not a result of his charm and charisma, which he has. Much is a reflection of the mood and the man he faces. One longtime GOP strategist uttered perhaps the understatement of the century by saying O’Rourke is “liked” more than Cruz. This year’s Texas race reminds me of North Carolina where Jesse Helms faced Harvey Gantt in 1990 in a nationally watched race. Helms was despised to the point that some Republicans hoped he’d lose but, the Helms framed the race in conservative vs. liberal terms and while the state was changing, it was not ready for a liberal Democrat (much less an African-American). But the times were changing and eventually the state changed as well (Obama carried it in 2008).

Unlike many, I don’t rule an upset as totally implausible but, I just don’t see it as occurring. A bigger question is what the future holds for Beto O’Rourke.

Crass’s Call: Ted Cruz* (R) 50% Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%

Published in The Moderate Voice on October 1

Today is October 1. That means that we can officially say that the long-awaited and truly consequential 2018 midterms elections are one month away. And for anxious and morose Republicans in the House, it is increasingly a case of round and round and round she goes, where the doom ends, no one knows. In race after race, polls show the Grand Old Party with little to be excited about as it’s hard to find Republicans who think the party can hold onto control. The question at this point is how many seats they will lose beyond the 23 necessary to give Democrats the majority. A growing number of people are preparing for a horror show and anticipate the party hemorrhaging to the point that the loss of seats could even be in the neighborhood of 40, perhaps even as high as 50.

While the winners and losers cannot be determined until all of the votes are counted and at least some inevitable recounts have concluded, there are a few trends that are developing that are somewhat different than what might have been expected. One wouldn’t think that a cycle could be more any less counter-intuitive than 2016 but, if polls are to be believed, a number of Republican incumbents in Latino friendly areas that Hillary Clinton carried is where Democrats naturally expected the most obvious gains. But right now, incumbents such as Will Hurd of Texas, Carlos Curbelo of Florida and David Valadao of California appear to be weathering the storm and John Katko of New York is viewed as at least one-step ahead of his Democratic rival. In addition, the open Miami area seat left open by retiring Florida Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, which was thought to be a slam-dunk takeover, now appears to be trending toward a tossup, though that has to do with the fact that the Democratic standard bearer, Donna Shalala, is running the kind of race that makes some think she is trying to tra-la-la her way into Congress.

Conversely, growing, suburban districts that were either drawn to be Republican friendly or outright GOP vote sinks seem to be beyond the level of simply flirting with sending a Democrat to Congress; they seem on the verge of entering into a marital arrangement, if not an outright commitment. This is the case in a plethora of races in almost every category – open seats, seats with junior incumbents and even those with very senior incumbents who hold very powerful positions in the House.

Consider this. It is no surprise that California’s 49th District, Arizona’s Second Districts and Pennsylvania’s Fifth, Sixth and Seventh Districts seem to be turning into gimmes for Democrats – the incumbents there are not seeking re-election and the seats themselves have been increasingly competitive throughout the decade. Similarly, incumbents Barbara Comstock of Virginia, Mike Coffman of Colorado, Jason Lewis and Eric Paulsen of Minnesota and Kevin Yoder of Kansas are considered to be badly behind in their re-election bids in districts that are genuinely mixed politically (and Clinton carried every one of them except for Lewis’s which she lost by a razor-tight margin). But the true nature of a probable wave-year comes from the fact that these are districts Democrats either only made half-hearted plays for previously, or left off the table entirely. In other words, seats that shouldn’t even be in play.

Incumbents such as Tom MacArthur and Leonard Lance of New Jersey, Mimi Walters of California, Mike Bishop of Michigan and the neighboring open Michigan’s Eleventh Congressional District are now seen at least nominally headed in the Democratic direction. Dave Wasserman of <em>The Cook Political Report</em> recently tweeted how Republicans created their own conundrum for the latter two: “The truth is that Michigan Rs got too greedy in 2011 when they drew two R-leaning Oakland Co. seats instead of one secure one. Now, the gerrymander is backfiring and they’re poised to lose both.” But of course this possibility wouldn’t be on the table had the environment not been so toxic.

To show how bad the climate has disintegrated for Republicans, Peter Roskam of Illinois is suffering from the opposite result of the effects of gerrymandering. He is also viewed as a slight underdog in his re-election bid but the funny thing about his suburban Chicago seat – Illinois Sixth Congressional District, was that a number of GOP areas were carved out of neighboring districts following the 2012 remap and placed into this one to make districts around it safely Democratic. That succeeded. If Sean Casten knocks off Roskam, now the party will get a bonus (another suburban Chicago district drawn to take in red areas, the 14th District held by Randy Hultgren, is also viewed as a possible switch).

Other suburban incumbents in formerly “safe” districts. Rob Woodall of Georgia, David Brat of Virginia and George Holding and Ted Budd in North Carolina are at or near the tossup level. Another district in the Tarheel State, an seat in suburban Charlotte left open by the defeat of incumbent Robert Pittenger, seems to be trending toward the Democrats. Though mid-decade redrawings of districts tool the shape of some, none of those seats were designed to be remotely competitive. Example: John McCain took 54% in Budd’s district while Romney won it with 56%.

The Republican horror show in suburbia appears to be extending to the reddest states. In Texas, Pete Sessions (Dallas) and John Culberson (Houston) are tied in the polls while John Carter (whose Round Rock home in the fast growing Austin suburbs) narrowly leads MJ Hegar but the challenger has boatloads of cash and the race is thought to be closing fast. Another suburban Houstonite’s race, the 22nd District where Republican Pete Olson is seeking re-election, has moved onto the board as have two open seats – the 2nd District and the 21st, near Houston and San Antonio respectively(the competitive nature is enhanced by major growth and the 22nd’s population has increased more than any other – 199,000 people, since 2010). Republicans are favored to hold all three but the idea that one loss might come as a shock is quickly evaporating. In another deep-red state, Mia Love is deadlocked in a carefully gerrymandered Salt Lake City, Utah district that has had rapid growth while Andy Barr is in the same predicament in Lexington, Kentucky, an improvement of sorts given that he was on the verge of being left for dead this summer.

The suburban sprawl has also hit Iowa, a state that swung from Obama to Trump by a bigger margin of any state. But Rod Blum in Eastern Iowa is considered a dead-man walking and has been triaged by top Republican groups while Des Moines’s David Young, while not performing that poorly, has a serious situation on his hands and is running slightly behind.

Other suburban longtime Republican strongholds that are down-to-the-wire: California’s Twenty Fifth District, which since its creation in 1992 has always been solidly Republican, Washington’s Eighth District which has never sent a Democrat to the other Washington, and California-48, though Orange County’s Dana Rohrabacher is facing the race of his 30-year political life not just because of the climate, but because his bizarre affinity for Vladimir Putin is no doubt a bigger hindrance than his arch-conservatism in a longtime GOP stronghold Clinton carried.

Other districts in Washington State are getting in on the festivities also. After a weaker than expected showing in an all-party primary in August, Democrats have realistic hopes of knocking off Jaime Herrera-Beutler in a Western Washington district designed to thwart , though not necessarily insulate her from a tough challenge. Across the state and in slightly better shape, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the fourth ranking Republican, is slightly favored for survival but will need every tool at her disposal to do so.

One race that is being left off the list of those most competitive is Ohio-14 which is located North of Cleveland. Incumbent David Joyce has tried to come across as a knee-jerk moderate but, I could see his rival, little known attorney Betsy Rader, as being the next Carol Shea-Porter, who in 2006 upset a seemingly secure New Hampshire Congressman after receiving scant help from the party.

Even in wave-years, there’s always a survivor or two and at this point, the suburban survivor for the GOP may be Steve Chabot of Ohio. Democrats were optimistic that Aftab Pureval could unseat him but, in a case of deja vu, the last round of redistricting was designed to shore him up, just like the last decade. Chabot survived the 2006 wave when many didn’t expect he would but fell two years later in a Presidential year (overzealous mapmakers gave Chabot blood red Warren County following redistricting and that area saved Jean Schmidt in her two razor tight elections in the middle of the last decade). Another race in Orange County, once considered the bastion of Republicanism – California-39, seems to be trending in the Republicans direction, but only after the Democratic candidate was hit with sexual harassment allegations. The rumors have largely been defunct but it remains to be seen whether Cisneros can recover from be pounded over the airwaves by his opponent, Young Kim (the district also has a large Asian-American population which Kim may be benefiting from). Republicans are hoping for another break in the Philadelphia suburbs, Bucks County to be exact, where first term incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick is facing a Democrat seen as having some deficiencies as a candidate. But his race is still a tossup.

Republicans also dodged a big bullet in Omaha, Nebraska as former Democratic Congressman Brad Ashford, a moderate seeking to reclaim the seat he narrowly lost to Don Bacon in 2016, was upset for the nomination by Kara Eastman, whom many view as lacking the centrist credentials to win the seat (and which polls see to be bearing out).

One view is that Hurd, Curbelo, and a handful of others, have been vocally working to distance themselves from the Trump administration. But they are no doubt helped by low turnout and voter enthusiasm from Latino voters and that hinders Democrats significantly. On the other side, suburban Republicans might have initially thought the nature of their districts and previous strength would be enough to carry them. But as they are learning, the Trump brands deterioration and their own survivals are not mutually exclusive.

How much Democrats run up the score will depend on how they do in districts that might have a few population concentrations but are not considered extension of cities. These are seats like Colorado-3 (Scott Tipton), Illinois-12 (Mike Bost), Illinois-13 (Rodney Davis), Kansas-2, which is being vacated by Republican Lynn Jenkins and where, for the moment at least, they are leading, New Mexico-2 (Steve Pearce is running for governor), New York-19 (John Faso), New York-22 (Claudia Tenney), and Pennsylvania-16 (Mike Kelly). And of course with waves, even strategists can’t predict what driftwood will wash ashore. And in a climate when the term, “tossup” might be overused, the Modesto Valley California-10 might epitomize what I call a “tossup and then some.” Jeff Denham is seeking re-election in a low-turnout seat Clinton carried but challenger Josh Harder reported $3 million on hand.

Finally, Democrats do have two trouble spots of their own and they are both in rural Minnesota. They might take a loss in the Duluth-centered North Country while a Rochester-Mankato seat they are defending is too close to call.

We shall see, we shall see!

A few weeks ago, a nationally watched race was held in Ohio’s Twelfth Congressional District. After all of the returns reported in roller-coaster like fashion, Republican Troy Balderson eked out a win by just under 1,700 votes over Democrat Danny O’Connor. Sound impressive? It is. For O’Connor.

Republicans have predictably spun the Ohio-12 result as Democrats failing to pick up a seat and technically, that is correct. But they conveniently left out a number of factors which carry about as much weight for other districts in-play this November as this one. Most notably: that drawing elongated, animal-shaped districts to favor their party can easily be shattered in years that are poised to go heavily against the party such as 2018.

One, O’Connor managed to come within a single percentage point of picking up a district that awarded 53% to Trump and in the Spring, managed to snag a Pennsylvania seat that gave the president a whopping 62%. Two, the 2011 Ohio map that produced this district is commonly acknowledged to have been the most egregiously drawn in the country and ironically, it was made law by the very governor who now gushes about the need to get serious about reforming the way the lines are drawn, John Kasich. Three, Republicans have held Ohio-12 or its previous incarnations for a single two-year stint since the 1950s and the district does not even fall within the top 50 districts Democrats need to win to gain the house again they came within one point of doing so.

While statistics can be cited until the cows come home, there are changes that are nearly assured of happening this November that would make the Ohio result spin on its face. Chief among them is that many state delegations both large and small seem poised to be changed inside-out, at least as far as Republican representation is concerned. Put another way, if Democrats can make the gains they are hoping, some states will see Republicans whittled down far more than they should for seats that they were supposed to be inherently favored to win while other states may see other Republicans eviscerated.

Lets look at examples.

When the new Congress convenes in January, the New Jersey delegation could go from Seven Democrats and five Republicans to eleven Democrats and one Republican. The Pennsylvania delegation, which now consists of 12 Republicans and six Democrats could go to 11-7. California, which already sends a lopsided 39 Democrats and 14 Republicans to Washington, can very realistically shoot up to 45-8 or, as some ambitious Democrats believe, particularly with the indictment of GOP Congressman Duncan Hunter, as high as 47-6 (the four Orange County Republican districts, long the bastion of Reagan conservatism, might be completely wiped out). Virginia, with seven Republicans and four Democrats, may completely reverse.

Ditto for Iowa. A non-partisan commission as required by law drew a map that nonetheless resulted in a 3-1 Republican split. This year the Hawkeye State is looking exceedingly likely to go Democratic by that same ratio. It is also very conceivable that Kansas, a state that was designed to send as many as four Republicans to Washington, may well have two Democrats when the new Congress gavels to order.

Even states with already fairly blue delegations may get in on the festivities. Illinois was a rare Democratic gerrymander and it mostly held up. The Land of Lincoln currently sends eleven Democrats and seven Republican to Washington. Some strategists see a 14-4 or even a 15-3 delegation within reach. Minnesota, the land of 10,000 lakes, may soon become the land of near-universal Democrats. And the other Washington – Washington State has the potential to send just one Republican to the nation’s capitol, down from four at this moment.

Other states might not be surrendering as many seats, but will have noticeable impact. Michigan, a state that in 2012 was drawn to send nine Republicans and just five Democrats to Congress for the entire decade, now has at least even odds of splitting 7-7. Texas, where a protracted seven-year remap battle ended with the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in favor of the state, was designed to have a 36 seat map that would go 24-11-1 (the latter would be a tossup but drawn to maximize Republican heavy precincts). After this year, the Republican representation could go to as low as 21 seats.  Even Ohio could add a Democrat or two, if not three. Finally, Georgia, a state where lines was drawn with such precision that at least one top Republican boasted during the nationally watched special election to succeed Tom Price that her district at least was designed to block out Democrats, has a district or two that’s at least on the table.

As evidence that something very concerning is materializing for Republican, interest groups are reserving air time in places that would have been laughable as targets as recently as the 2016 cycle. Georgia’s Seventh Congressional District has never been on the table let alone a seat that pro-Republican groups felt the need to run ads trying to shore up the incumbent seeking re-election, Robert Woodall. But earlier this week, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced that they would be reserving time to boost Woodall. Similarly, Michigan’s Eighth District and North Carolina’s Thirteenth District had been considered reach seats for Democrats as the ear began. But the Trump now, the Trumped aligned America First PAC has included the two districts alongside eight other more predictable buys in an attempt to defend Congressmen Mike Bishop and Ted Budd in seats that seem to be fast-moving toward the tossup category. And George Holding, who holds the North Carolina Second District that was always poised to be spirited but not dangerous for getting away, is now informing supporters that he slightly trails his Democratic rival (though many think it may be a fundraising ploy).

Meanwhile, other districts thought to be little more than reach seats just a few short month ago are now not only on the table but have a glass and silverware to go along (Indiana-2, Pennsylvania-16, Texas-31, Washington-3). Will Democrats feast on them come Election Day? Of course it depends on the size of the wave. But for Republicans, it won’t take many to prove that precision when drawing maps only goes so far to save them climates that are beyond-adverse.

It’s still ten months before Election Day but, now that we’ve entered “that year,” Democrats are convinced and Republicans are publicly concerned (and privately hysterical) that 2018 will not simply be a wave, but cause for Noah to build a second arc. I use the arc example because it implies that some could be shielded from large-scale waves but, for Republicans in many large delegations, that might not be the case. Allow me to explain.

Donald Trumps thirtysomething percent popularity has made him anathema to voters in many parts of the country and no more is that the case than in suburbia. If that holds through November, Republican Congressmen in many of those seats are threatened with extinction. It also means that delegations which today have moderate or healthy Republican representation may see that turned into skeletal crews.

Let’s look at past history. In wave years, it’s not uncommon for states to opt for almost one-sided representation even in states that traditionally favor the other side of the aisle. Iowa following the post-Watergate election of 1974 went from sending five Republican Congressmen to Washington to a mere one (Chuck Grassley who still serves to Washington today). Indiana, which had seven Republican Congressman at the start of ’74, was relegated to just two post-election.

Washington State in 1994 is an example of the shoe being on the other foot as an 8-1 delegation in favor of the Democrats prior to the election ended with a 7-2 Republican edge after. So profound was the anti-Democratic tide even in a state that Bill Clinton had handsomely carried two years earlier that a very big fish, House Speaker Tom Foley, was washed up ashore. More recently New York State’s Republican delegation was nearly annihilated over a three-year period. Prior to the 2006 election, nine Republicans held seats in the lower chamber. But in the elections of 2006 and ’08, Republicans lost three each, followed by another after a special election in 2009. That left only two of a 29 member delegation remaining one of whom (Pete King) could actually be at risk of losing this year. Over those two cycles, neighboring Connecticut also voted out its three GOP Representatives and has elected five Democrats ever since.

With no one disputing that Republican representation in suburbia will diminish this November (Republicans should only hope against hope that the verb doesn’t go far deeper), let’s look at which states they might find themselves wiped out.

For starters, it’s not inconceivable that New Jersey’s 7-5 Democratic edge could balloon to 11 to 1, with only Chris Smith likely to hold on in a very heavily GOP seat (the true measure of how poorly Republicans are doing nationwide might be how tepid Smith’s reelection margin be, as he could easily hang on with a mere 53% of the vote). Democrats already seem to have a certain pickup in the Atlantic-Cape May County district that Frank LoBiondo is vacating and are the most energized they’ve been since ???? about beating veteran Republicans Rodney Frelinghuysen and Leonard Lance, which tells the last time Democrats had even a snowball’s chance in areas such as that.

Not everyone in the party is sold on the competitiveness of the third district but, the Burlington-Ocean County CD is not that Republican and incumbent Tom MacArthur sent heads scratching when he not only voted for the ACA repeal but was the only New Jersey representative to back the tax package which few contend will have anything other than a deleterious impact on Garden State taxpayers. The question is how deleterious an impact it will have on MacArthur’s tenure.

Some see California Democrats as having the capability of building from their already intimidating 39-14 Democratic lead to as high as 47 to just six Republicans. That may seem like a stretch but the fact is, it does seem borderline easy to imagine Democrats reaching 45 which is indicative of how bad it it is shaping up to be. But members who sat in what even five years ago was turf laughable for Democrats to be talking about inroads – Darrell Issa, Ed Royce, Mimi Walters , Dana Rohrabacher have swung hard to the left and may be ripe for the taking. Jeff Denham and Steve Knight sit in more genuinely competitive districts. Another district worth watching is Tom McClintock in the heavily Republican Sierra but only a decade ago, the GOP victory margin was three percent and less than one percent respectively. Ironically it’s the most Democratic seat held by Republican, David Valadao which might be easiest for the GOP to hold given low turnout particularly in the midterm year.

In the Empire State, very optimistic Democrats are thinking that every one of the state’s nine Republican members are in danger of falling. That may be wishful thinking to some degree but what is hardly debatable is that every single one of the nine will have a tough race (including the once invincible King). With that in mind, the GOP membership in New York could easily be cut by 2/3. Chris Collins has the best shot at coming back but he has been making some eye-popping statements regarding his support of the president that have Democrats at least hopeful of making him fight for it. The odds of beating Staten Island’s Dan Donovan might come down to recruitment though that might take a double-tsunami. Expect races against Elise Stefanik and Tom Reed to break late. John Katko has worked hard in only two terms to solidify Democratic leaning territory but that might not be enough to blunt a Republican obliteration mood by voters. Freshman John Faso has a district with a Republican edge but it doesn’t take much for an energized Democratic base to put the party over the top with the right candidate.

Additionally, a remarkably effective Democratic gerrymander has left Illinois with an 11-7 Democratic delegation but, it is possible that three or even four seats might fall this November. Peter Roskam, who was ironically drawn a GOP “vote sink” to protect other members, may ironically be the member Democrats are most salivating at beating.

Minnesota is known as the Land of Ten-Thousand Lakes but after Election Day, it could easily go down as the land of a single Republican Congressman. Democrats currently hold a 5-3 edge in the House delegation and have been looking for just the right opportunity to sneak through in two other suburban districts – the 2nd and 3rd. They have always proven frustrating elusive. This year, however, Jason Lewis and Eric Paulsen have fights galore and both could lose (Lewis in fact barely won an open seat last year). Now Minnesota does have a rare Democratic incumbent, Rick Nolan who is prepared for a hard go but, given the fact that he survived twice in the past two cycles that were not friendly to his party (albeit by the skin of his teeth), , to quote Johnny Mathis, chances are his chances are awfully good to return when the gavel slams in January 2019. And that would make the delegation 7-1 Democratic.

The partisan make-up of the Washington State delegation is 6-4 in favor of the Democrats and the party has long sought to win the third and eighth districts, held by Jaime Herrera-Beautler and Dave Reichert respectively. Reichert has opted not to run again and the likely new GOP nominee, Dino Rossi won’t be a pushover. But neither is he a lock. Neither is a guarantee and some see the third in particular as trending away. But a more enlightening thought is beating Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers in a Spokane area district (the one Foley used to represent) that is Republican, but less so than Kansas-4 or South Carolina-5 where an energized Democratic base came relatively close to pulling upsets. The partisan lay of the land is what it is but if Democrats succeeded in wresting away all three seats, the delegation would balloon to 9-1.

Other delegations aren’t at risk of seing their GOP officeholders wither on the vine but do face the possibility of seeing their partisan representation almost reversed. Michigan now sends nine Republicans and five Democrats to Washington but there’s a chance it could completely reverse or stay at 8-6. Then there’s Pennsylvania where redistricting may loom prior to the 2018 elections. The one bright spot for Republicans as far as big state delegations go may be Ohio where one of the most aggressive gerrymanders in the nation – one that produced a 12-4 Republican edge, is not expected to change much regardless of the national mood, though there are one, two or even three seats that are not inoculated from the climate (Dave Joyce, Steve Chabot and the open Sixteenth District where they have a strong candidate).

In closing, there will be republicans remaining in Congress following 2018 but, for certain delegations, it would not surprise me to see total apocalypse.

RJ Matson, Roll Call

The most topsy-turvy race in Senate history is about to come to an end as Alabama voters finally go to the polls to fill the seat that Attorney General Jeff Sessions vacated in February after a spinechilling and unspeakable campaign that has no doubt made observers want to pinch themselves to see if its really happening. And sadly, it is. It is not a dream.

The campaign has been nightmarish of course for the people of Alabama and the United States. And of course the term nightmarish is not meant in the political bloody sense even though the race has been a slugfest but rather, nightmarish in the sense that the allegations against Roy Moore – and not just in the area of sexual harassment, have been as ugly and Unbecoming for a potential US senator

It goes without saying that the only thing that Doug Jones and Roy Moore have in common is the fact that they’re both lawyers. I think one thing that’s consistent in this whole sexual harassment scandal is that with a handful of exceptions, both parties will only ask for resignations when it’s convenient and both parties have been extremely careless in handling these accusations. But that’s for another column.

A look at the dynamics means a look at what Democrats are up against. The last time a member of that party won a Senate race was Richard Shelby in 1992, the man who saw the handwriting on the wall and became a Republican two years later and who would, ironically become Moore’s colleague should he win. Shelby is doing everything he can to make sure that doesn’t happen The last time a Democrat won a Senate race was Richard Shelby in 1992, the man who saw the handwriting on the wall and became a Republican two years later and who would, ironically become Moore’s colleague should he win. Shelby is doing everything he can to make sure that doesn’t happen and when he returned his ballot via absentee, said he voted for someone other than Moore (he declined to say for whom).

The closest Democrats have come to winning a U.S. Senate seat since that time was in 1996, when State Senator Roger Bedford only lost to Sessions by the relatively close seven percent. But since then, Republicans have gone up and up and up. Obviously, the race has turned conventionality on its head except for the thesis. That Alabama is a very conservative state that, even in the worst of circumstances such as now, will not abandon old habits easily. . It seems as though one question looms and while polls show the race to be close, most pundits give a slight edge to Moore. That’s difficult to argue with but in any case, let’s look at the dynamics will govern tomorrow.

For starters, how many voters are telling posters that they’re going to vote for Jones when they are truly embarrassed to say that they’re going to vote for Moore because of the allegations? On the flip side, are there voters who are responding that they will be voting for Moore when they’re actually planning on going Jones but don’t want to say so due to embarrassment of his being fairly liberal?

What will black turnout be like? It’s no accident that Doug Jones has been stumping black churches – nine of them in the Tuscaloosa area alone last Sunday. Civil rights icon John Lewis and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker campaigned in Alabama this past weekend (and Charles Barkley is expected to in the waning hours). Then there is the fact that Jones and his allies are stumping hard while, putting it generously, Moore has conducted a stealth campaign. In the last week, his appearances have been non-existent. Perhaps the press-the-fleshm grip and grins are not necessary in a conservative state but with a candidate as beleagured as Moore, it is surely risky.

Finally, with a poll showing Trump’s popularity surprisingly low in the state (about even which is a real let-down for a Republican in this state), and with many, many people turned off and confused by the allegations, how many will sit it out altogether? Shelby in a sense did just that but that’s just it. If the absentee ballot request is any indication, turnout is expected to be through the roof and that’s just what Democrats need. But, Alabama is such a conservative state that there may be mathematical limitations on how many votes Jones can feasibly expect to get. That’s where Republican-leaning centrists come in and Jones literally has no margin of error in hoping that they not only turn out, but are able to otherwise put to rest their reservations about voting for a Democrat to rest.

Moore is a master of controversy in Alabama. He was twice removed by the Supreme Court. He has made hard-lined comments against gays, has defied Supreme Court orders to remove a statue of the Ten Commandments from public grounds and even seemed to say that America was last at its greatest during the Civil War because although there was slavery, the nuclear family was together.

Anecdotal evidence is that most hard-conservative voters will stick with Moore because they are swayed by arguments that a vote for Jones is one more vote for Democratic boogeyman, specifically Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. There was a recent report this week of a focus group in with 12 voters who gave invarying responses about whether they actually liked Moore or whether they just were voting him because of convenience, but the bottom line is that they are still opting to send him to Washington (another interview found 14 white men in a coffee shop and not one was willing to go Moore). Again, how all pull the lever in the privacy of a voting booth is another matter. We know Jones’ abortion rights platform is a hindrance in a state with such a large number of evangelicals.

For decades if not centuries, Alabama has proven itself a bad joke for embracing not only change, but progress. In the 60s, the nation watched in horror as it was dragged kicking and screaming to provide basic rights to African-Americans. In 2006, more than 40% of Alabamans opposed removing a provision in the state Constitution banning interracial marriages. Two years before that, a majority of voters (50.1%) actually opposed removing language from the Constitution barring segregation in the schools. While the matter has long ben settled law by the various courts, the fact that citizens were resisting the concept is just plain scary.

Will Alabama tomorrow prove itself more like it’s neighbor to the east, Georgia, or it’s neighbor to the west, Mississippi? We’ll most likely know before all the votes are tallied but given the Yellowhammer State’s reputation, I suspect that sadly,it will be the latter.

In case nobody noticed, last week elections were held throughout the United States. The major races were mostly confined to the eastern part of the country, and they included the governorships of both New Jersey and Virginia. Yet it was the legislative elections, particularly in the Commonwealth that stole the show. Not only did the results give Democrats something to crow about but the numbers and the pickups exceeded the most wild expectations, though it’s worth pointing out that many Republicans in New Jersey vastly underperformed in fertile GOP territory also). More ominously, it confirmed what an already apprehensive bunch of Republicans fear exactly one year before the 2018 midterms: that total annihilation is certainly a possibility.

Phil Murphy’s thirteen percentage point victory in the Garden State was about in line with the expectations of most pollsters. Ralph Northam’s nine percent Virginia win most certainly wasn’t. The vast majority of polls in the Old Dominion at least until the weekend before the election showed a neck-and-neck race and some even suggested that the Republican nominee, Ed Gillespie, might pull off a win. What was most extraordinary about Northam’s margin is that he didn’t run a strong campaign at all while by all accounts, Gillespie did. Add that to the fact the Democrats won the positions of Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General and it is clear that a mandate exists.

The real news was in the House of Delegate races. With Republicans holding 66 seats and Democrats just 34, no one expected the partisan hands to come close to changing. Even the most optimistic prognosticators were opining that the party should be happy with an eight seat pickup. Instead, they clearly won 15 and are within 10 votes in a 16th district that would tie the partisan ratio of the chamber at 50 seats for each party (incidentally, word came in the last few days that in a 17th seat where the GOP nominee prevailed by a mere 84 votes, 668 ballots in a fairly liberal area were given ballots with the wrong candidates, so while it’s still a longshot, litigation and a potential special election may yet give Democrats a slim majority).

The successes or near successes were not just in districts Hillary Clinton carried last year. Democrats wrested one seat away from Republicans that in districts that voted for Trump, and came within 150 votes of winning two others, suggesting that Republicans may have to worry about light-red districts all throughout the country of which there are plenty. The first transgender woman unseated a vocal homophobe, two Latina women won seats that do not have large Hispanic populations and a number of new African-American and women one seats as well. What is most remarkable is that though Clinton carried these districts, many had voted Mitt Romney and John McCain and regularly vote Republican at the local level.

That’s not all. In Oklahoma, which gave Donald Trump a bigger percentage than any in the nation, a Lesbian Democrat won a special election to the State Senate in a district that gave Trump 69% of the vote. This was the fourth legislative seat held by the GOP to flip in the Sooner State (a fifth was within 70 votes of doing so last Spring) and while incumbent Governor Mary Fallon was likely a factor, it might signal the Trump brand might be wearing a little thin even on conservative terrain.

It’s a shame the pendulum has to swing with whichever party holds the White House but, it seems like for the opposition to make gains in every given cycle, that must happen. 2010 and to a lesser extent 2014 would not have taken place without Barack Obama as president and last week would not have happened with Donald Trump as president. But, to paraphrase what someone famous once said, “you go with the battlefield you have rather than the battlefield you want.” But as the calendar gears toward 2018, the battlefield the Democrats want is to obviously put as many GOP held seats – particularly in the House, in play and even before last week, all indications are that it is taking place. So toxic is the Republican brand right now that suggesting a tidal wave is forming against the party is actually a major understatement. In fact, the sky may very well be the limit.

In 2006, Democrats captured 30 Republican House seats, more than enough to claim the majority. This was done in part by claiming GOP seats that had long proven elusive, like Colorado-7, Connecticut-2 and 6, and Iowa-1, yet also by stunning incumbents in the most unexpected places, including Iowa-2, New Hampshire-1, and Pennsylvania-4. Interestingly, at least four of the most battle hardened incumbents saw what they were up against and managed to survive against the odds. Among them: Chris Shays of Connecticut, Heather Wilson of New Mexico, Steve Chabot of Ohio and Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania.

Because Virginia Democrats far and away exceeded their expectations, it’s a fair assumption that unless the climate changes by this time next year, Democrats will exceed expectations at the national level as well, but they don’t even need to in order to take back the House. There are plenty of seats on the table that voted for Clinton for president that could flip by themselves. Many analysts think that because the Virginia gains came at every corner of Republican Barbara Comstock’s Congressional district, she will need a miracle to win a third time (Comstock may very well be the most endangered incumbent in the GOP conference). California and Pennsylvania alone have the vulnerable seats that could provide the Democrats with half of the 24 that they need, New Jersey has at least three while New York has as many as six, including the once invincible, Peter King. At least two GOP incumbents in Texas are gearing up for titanic struggles. The betting is that Democrats may pick up one seat in Iowa and are on the bubble of doing so in Michigan.
This hardly takes into account the retirements that have or may occur (of those states, Frank LoBiondo of New Jersey and Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania are open due to a retirement). This followed earlier announcements from Washington’s Dave Reichert and Florida’s Ileana Ros Lehtinen, who had announced her intention to bolt for the exits earlier in the year. Centrist in the Senate are the Republicans are still reeling from the shock of Jeff Flakes retirement. It is so early in the cycle and for all of the retirements that materialize before the first of the year, many more typically occur after and a fair number are unexpected.

And now, once secure incumbents such as Peter Roskam of Illinois and Pete Sessions of Texas are on the watch list. That doesn’t mean both will lose. But if Republicans are able to consider it a victory simply to preserve those two seats, it is clearly a signal of how far they have fallen.